I’m going to focus on updating a variety of charts today.  The first, of course, is SPX.  Like DJI, it is perched on the edge of important support — the loss of which portends significant losses in the next few days.

continued for members…

The futures gave up almost 30 points overnight, but signal a small gain at the open.  SPX needs all the help it can get, as a drop through the white channel bottom would likely mean 1991-1996 for starters, and potentially one of our lower targets identified last week.

As they did all last week, USDJPY and CL are calling the shots.  CL is edging closer and closer to our 34.17 target — threatening to break down through the bottom of a falling channel.  While, USDJPY is threatening to break down through the bottom of the rising channel from 2012.  I think there’s a very good chance of at least an intraday drip to the key .618 at 120.11 — or at least the yellow .618 at 120.22.  But, a drop through and close below 120.11 would be a seriously bearish development — a break of trend for this all-important pair.

With so many indices and currency pairs on the brink, it seems increasingly likely that the downside scenario we described last week is playing out.  Those with a vested interest in the continuation of the Fed supported, easy-money bull market are not only accommodating (failing to prop up) this sell-off, but are making it happen.  The end goal, of course, is to sway the Fed from the rate hike or, at least, to cast it in as dovish a light as possible.

UPDATE:  10:26 AM

Sorry for the interruption.  Computer just froze up on me. It’s happened a few times since the last Think or Swim update.  Hmmm…

SPX spiked 13.9 in a minute and is back below the red TL, so I’ll assume we’re going to test  2000 and probably tag 1996.30 today.  I’d take a short position here and ride it as long as SPX stays below the 5-min SMA10.UPDATE:  10:43 AM

Looks like CL is going to put the brakes on again today.  Back to cash here at 2007.26.UPDATE:  11:02 AM

I was too quick to blow out that short.  CL and USDJPY are both slipping back.  I’d go back to a short position here, same deal as before.  Hold it as long as it stays below the SMA10. It looks like it could inch lower all day before reaching 1996 — long time to wait for a 0.5% gain.  Again, I’d dump it on any sustained move above the 5-min SMA10.  I’ll leave you with those parameters while I go back to the other charts I worked on over the weekend and would like to get posted.

UPDATE:  11:20 AM

SPX just tagged 1996.30 as USDJPY reached its 1.618 extension and CL (nearly) its SMA200.  I’d switch to a long position here.I’d recommend tight stops, as there’s more downside potential: 1991.75, 1969.32, 1962-66.  By merely backtesting its broken rising channel, CL suggests this is just a bounce on the way to a lower target.  Ditto for USDJPY, which has more important targets down below. If that’s the case, bounce targets would include the 5-min SMAs at 2002 and 2006, the red TL at 2003ish, and the white channel bottom around 2011.

UPDATE:  11:30

Note that SPX is also testing the red TL off the July highs.  A drop down through it adds fuel to the bearish case.

It looks like SPX is going to try for 1991.75, so I’d revert to short for the extra few points if it pushes below our entry.UPDATE:  11:37 AM

Back to short for 1991.75.UPDATE:  11:44 AM

CL  is angling to stop the downside again. I can only assume that they want to hold the red TL at SPX 1991.75-1996.30 or ES 1982.50.If they want a serious bounce, they’ll take USDJPY down to 120.22 or 120.11 and then give it a good, swift kick.

UPDATE:  11:56 AM

Back to long as USDJPY topped that white TL.UPDATE:  11:58 AM

I’d revert to short here on the first sign of weakness.  Could be just a backtest.UPDATE:  12:10 PM

Switching back to cash here, as USDJPY backtested the TL but CL is dropping.  In other words, we’re likely to see a lot more whipsawing for the next several hours.As I started to do an hour ago, I’m going to focus on getting some other charts posted for the next few hours.  Trying to do both that and this at the same time has left me distracted and unfocused and definitely off my game today.

One other note: I’ll be out of circulation after the close Wednesday afternoon and some of Thursday.  I should be able to post early Thursday morning — probably until 9:30AM EST or so.  More later.