Futures are down modestly, backtesting the SMA10 they soared above last week. Interestingly, though, the moving averages remain bearishly aligned.

continued for members… The only real action in currencies this morning is in EURUSD, which dropped below its SMA20 for the first time since mid-March. This is bearish, but would be really bearish if the rising white channel were to break down in favor of a SMA200 backtest in June.

There are interesting goings on in the bond market too, this morning. Even though CL and RB have stalled at their SMA10s… …the 2Y has pushed back above the little red TL, enabling the 2s10s to hold below its resistance at -48 bps.

Apparently, investors are more concerned about the debt limit negotiations than tomorrow’s CPI print.

To answer the question posed up above, the 10/20 cross has been pretty consistent since the Jan 2022 highs. There is only one instance where SPX didn’t make a noticeably lower low immediately following the cross: Apr 12, 2022. And, then, it merely held its ground until after OPEX, whereupon it cratered as expected.

It might be concerning to the bears that the SMA10 has curved back upward and SPX has topped it over the past several sessions.

But, the fact that VIX is angling higher in spite of the obvious propping efforts is some consolation.