Updated Aug 26, 2020:

After a long, dry spell, I’ve had several requests this week for charts for AUDUSD. Given the USD’s weakness of late, this seems like a good time to dust off some very old charts.

In April 2017, we noted that the pair was at important support – its SMA200. If it held, it was in a position to break out of a falling channel. If not…

…should it drop through the SMA200 at .7546, I would not want to be long at all. There’s plenty of downside potential, starting with .6584 – the .886 Fib retracement of the rise from .6006 in Oct 2008 to 1.1079 in July 2011. Should .6584 fail, the October 2008 lows are all that stand in the way of a test of .5493 – the .886 Fib retracement of the rise from .4775 in Apr 2001 to 1.1079.

Then, I pretty much forgot about AUDUSD…until this week. Funny how things turned out. The pair spent over a year bouncing back and forth across the SMA200 until finally breaking down for the last time in April 2018.

From there, it was all downhill until Mar 19, 2020 where it came within .0015 (0.3%) of the .5493 target.

Should we care that it has bounced back to potential overhead resistance?

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