Our analog is right on track, with USDJPY closing below its 100-day moving average on Friday and again on Sunday.
Aside from the 2-day delay to accommodate the month and quarter-end numbers, things are playing out as expected.
The eminis are off about 12 points from last Thursday’s close (SPX was closed Friday) and are backtesting the SMA100 after closing below it yesterday.
Today, we’ll find out just how the carry trade-followers react to a strengthening yen. The dollar is falling off as expected.
Will CL’s resulting overnight ramp job be enough to prop up the market?
EURUSD is doing its part, but is nearing its immediate upside potential.
As to SPX, our downside targets from Mar 30 [see: A New Analog, Part II] remain in place.
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