September 2023 – Page 2

PPI Confirms Inflation Increase

Like CPI yesterday, PPI confirmed rising prices that topped estimates. The 0.7% MoM headline increase was the highest since June 2022.

Algos, however, are more focused on the continuing decline in VIX.

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September 14, 2023

CPI Tops Estimates: Sep 13, 2023

August CPI came in at 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY, slightly higher than expectations. Core CPI was 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY, also higher than expectations. This is in line with our forecast, driven largely by higher costs for rent, transportation, and energy.

Futures are flat ahead of the open… …with VIX making lower lows on algo trading. Rising inflation, driven largely by YoY comps for energy prices, should make a Fed pause less likely.

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September 13, 2023

Charts I’m Watching: Sep 12, 2023

Futures gave back most of yesterday’s gains overnight as the August CPI print approaches.

Our gas price model suggests headline CPI is due for a significant increase.

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September 12, 2023

Charts I’m Watching: Sep 11, 2023

Futures are up about 0.50% percent on a rebound in tech shares.

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September 11, 2023

Food for Thought

There’s some good research on marketwatch.com this morning that illustrates the fact that no interest rate inversion (10s1s) in the past 70 years occurred without a subsequent recession. The average lag was about 14 months, meaning that we’re now officially overdue.

Furthermore, none of the post-inversion equity rallies lasted. Every single one was completely reversed, resulting in a bear market. Food for thought.