Did you hear it?  Even on a day like yesterday, with ridiculously low volume, VIX was still whispering in algos’ ears, “look how much I’ve fallen….in fact, I just broke down…time to buy.”

Never mind the fact that its regular overnight ramp job (when futures are easily propped up) was the only reason it had room to fall.  And, never mind the fact that the “breakdown” was manufactured for the algos benefit.  They love this stuff all the same.

It was enough to levitate SPX out of its falling channel (the purple arrow) and, then, above trend line resistance (the yellow.)continued for members… (more…)

Can anything derail the daily drip, drip, drip of higher prices?  Just last week, we had a whiff — just a hint of a tiny pause.  But, this morning, SPX is knocking at the door again – threatening a small breakout that will dash that scenario.  I can hardly wait (sarc.)

Instead, we’ll turn our attention to the supporting cast in this drama: DXY, CL, USDJPY and, of course, VIX.  I wonder (not really) if it’ll break trend to the downside again…continued for members…

(more…)

If you’ve enjoyed the past few days, you’ll probably enjoy today as well.  The market seems to be in maintenance mode, with just enough algo-juicing to prevent anything really nasty, but not quite enough to make any meaningful headway.

Yes, VIX, I’m looking at you.

continued for members… (more…)

Boarding a flight home this morning, but essentially nothing new to report except that VIX broke out of its latest falling channel.  Yesterday’s forecast remains unchanged.

continued for members… (more…)

The shift in leadership we discussed yesterday seems to be playing out.  USDJPY got a nice bounce where we expected, while CL reversed at our upside target and is back below its SMA200.  VIX, of course, continues to smooth things over while the algos recalibrate.

continued for members… (more…)

It’s always makes me a little nervous to call inflection points.  Despite how many you get right, there’s always the fear that you’ll get one horribly wrong.  Of course, when something fails to reverse, that’s valuable information as well.

So, we’ll take a quick look at the USD, which sliced right through our latest downside target and is hurtling towards our next.continued for members… (more…)