Today’s setup: end of the month and holiday bullish bias and channel support versus disappointing economic data here and abroad (and, that war thing in Ukraine that the “market” doesn’t seem to care much about.) One wildcard is Japan. The latest data was, again, horrid. But, there’s increased talk of doubling the country’s pension plan’s … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: August 2014
So, the Head & Shoulders Pattern worked out after all. Miracles never cease. Last night’s plunge below the neckline hasn’t been erased by the inexplicable Q2 GDP estimate increase. … continue reading →
Quick update on ES, which saw an interesting turn of events today…
USDJPY is faltering. Recall that it recently tagged the large scale .618. It has been in pullback mode ever since. As I first charted in December 2013, pullbacks from the top of the yellow channel have always resulted in large stock market declines. The latest, which started around the first of the year, hit … continue reading →
No joy on ES’ H&S Pattern, as this morning’s push topped the potential head — just like last night’s dip below 1992.75 trashed the other harmonic patterns (and, stopped out lots of bulls, no doubt.) In short, the “market” isn’t sure what to do at this point. … continue reading →
Potential IH&S for ES? Looking for a potential pullback after SPX 2000, with USDJPY and interest rates representing at least temporary headwinds. UPDATE: 11:00 AM Small scale 1.618 for both ES and SPX. The IH&S, if we get a pullback, for SPX. USDJPY is slumping, but stocks are ignoring it at the moment. UPDATE: … continue reading →
The yen continues to suffer. Rumor is the BOJ is ready to admit things ain’t going so well with Abenomics — which would presumably increase the odds of expanding QQE. Not so sure about an expansion, as inflation is clearly becoming problematic (on account of the cheapening yen.) Then again, this the same government that … continue reading →
The “market” is holding its cards close to the vest today, with everything poised to break out…just not doing it yet. ZN broke and is holding below the TL we identified a couple of days ago. And, VIX is channeling lower, backtesting the support we discussed yesterday. USDJPY, in particular, isn’t contributing to … continue reading →
The algos got going from the start, this morning. VIX pummeling turned what looked like a soft opening into new highs. Lots of volatility, as is typical of Fed minutes days. Trade safe… UPDATE: 1:30 PM The minutes are due out in 30-min or so. The algos have done their job, preparing the “market” for … continue reading →
Just a quick note regarding the 10-yr… Still a lot of upside from a harmonic standpoint, with the .886 at 127’205 looking nice and juicy now that the falling channel purple is safely in the rear view. Note the nice support on the 60-min chart that suggests another strong upside move is in the offing. … continue reading →