It’s been a month since our last update on bonds [see: Sep 24 update.] At the time, TNX had just reached our initial target: the 1.618 extension of the plunge from 23.97 to 13.94 from April to July 2012. It was also the .618 retracement of the drop from 40.13 in April 2010 to 13.94. … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: October 2013
ES has another wave down to go before we can consider the red channel fleshed out. It reached our target zone, but a little faster than expected. And, it looks further along in doing so than SPX. The point in arresting SPX above the 1.618 fib level at 1759.97 (of the drop from 1709 on … continue reading →
SPX poked up past our 1770.97 target in the last 3 minutes of trading yesterday. While, the e-minis reached our 1767.63 target around 3:59:30. It’s clinging to a 1.5 pt gain at the moment. Can it hold? There are two ways to play a leak past a natural turning point: dig your heels in, argue … continue reading →
Yesterday’s caveat has become today’s reality: The only caveat is that ES only reached 1762.25 — above the white 1.618, but a few points shy of the yellow 1.618 (1767.63.) So, there’s a possibility that it will slide a little higher overnight. If SPX were so inclined, it could tag along either intra-day or on … continue reading →
The markets are ready for a breakout or breakdown — best illustrated by the pennant we’ve been watching in USDJPY. The dollar index: The e-mini completed a reasonably well-formed Butterfly Pattern to the purple 1.272. But, as we discussed last week, the yellow/purple 1.618 intersection at 1767 is very much still on the table. If … continue reading →
UPDATE: 3:00 AM The futures rallied nearly to the .886 retracement of the drop from 1754 to 1734 and are backing off a bit. It remains to be seen whether 1754.50 will hold or not. Recall, 1767 is the next higher Fib — the 1.618 of the plunge from 1685 to 1583 that began May … continue reading →
FUND UPDATE: All the fund’s accounts are open. I’m going through documents one last time and will send them out before the end of the day. If you’ve already completed a accredited investor questionnaire and added yourself to the mailing list, look for an email later today. With any luck, the first closing will be … continue reading →
FUND NEWS: Houston, we have a bank account. With any luck, we’ll also have our brokerage account open today. I’m taking the morning off to wrap up the remaining paperwork. With any luck, we’ll have documents posted later today. Watch this space and your inbox for an update. * * * * * The dollar … continue reading →
The dollar is reacting to the .886 and 1.618 Fibs we discussed at length Friday. While a significant rebound could be in store, the USDJPY suggests a limited move. Note the continued coiling of the pair — never able to break out but never breaking down. The apex of the resulting pennant pattern is fast … continue reading →
The dollar finally reached our 79.60 target [see: Sep 20 Update] overnight and should see a bit of a technical bounce here at a large scale .886 (white) and medium scale 1.618 (purple.) But, as we’ve discussed the past few days, there is plenty more downside after the bounce. For starters, an alternate .886 at … continue reading →