Futures came within 7 points of our 200-day moving average target overnight, begging the question: was that close enough for a legitimate backtest?  SPX itself is still 15 points away, close enough by Aug-Oct 2019 standards but nowhere near the overshoot experienced this past March.

The more important question is whether the factors driving stocks lower haven’t yet finished? As we discussed yesterday, the bearish fundamental case has been building momentum lately. What if investors started to care?

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