June 3, 2012
The May 8 forecast for NYA was for the index to plunge from 7815 to 7340. The forecast worked out well, as Friday’s low was 7286 (a quick 7% return, yay!) As noted in that update, 7340 doesn’t really match up with any particular Fibonacci levels. And, it doesn’t intersect with the rising wedge until early August (the highlighted oval.)
I didn’t really see it taking that long to play out, and the market obliged for a change. It also obliged by precisely tagging the fan line I had drawn off the Oct 2007 top (yellow, dashed) and one of the parallel horizontal channel lines (redrawn as red, dashed line E for emphasis.)
We still haven’t landed exactly on a Fib level, so we either just overshot the .500 or haven’t yet reached the .618 target of 7145. Deciding which it is presents some interesting questions.
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