Updated: Nov 30, 2021

Natural gas is one of those commodities that’s rarely discussed except in connection with the weather or inflation. Like oil and gas, it could play an important role in determining what action the Fed takes over the coming months.

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Note that it has been in a large, white falling channel ever since 2002. This was a major transition from the rising yellow channel which guided it from the early 90s.

The white channel is defined by three separate bounces on the bottom and two separate reversals at its top – the most recent being on Oct 6 which was just shy of its Feb 2014 highs.

Since then, it has fallen over 30% into bear market territory.

At this point, it has support at the intersection of its rising red channel and the falling white channel’s .786 line at roughly 4.30. If that doesn’t hold, it could easily slip down to its SMA200, currently at 3.874. The RSI chart below illustrates how important this support is to its immediate future.