pebblewriter

Year: 2023

  • Bitcoin: Better Late Than Never

    As far back as May 11, our charts called for BTC to revert to the pink channel bottom  – which at the time was around 22,200 and awful darned close to the 200-day moving average.

    June rolled around, and the downside forecast still made sense at 24,000ish – even after BTC whiffed during that slide.

    It looked every bit as logical (though our patience was wearing thin) at the end of July at about 26,000.

    But, we had to wait all the way to Aug 17 to see our forecast pay off with a winning number of 26,266.Sometimes, charts work that way. You might get what you want, but only after exercising extreme patience. Go figure.

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 17, 2023

    Futures are up modestly on stronger growth data and an approaching OPEX.

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  • Mixed Messages

    Futures are off moderately in the premarket, with SPX and ES both trading slightly below their 50-day moving averages.

    ES dropped more after economic data which was generally stronger than consensus.  Housing starts beat while permits fell short.  Industrial production swung from -0.8% to +1.0%.  July FOMC minutes are due out this afternoon.

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  • Blowout Retail Sales Nudge Rates Higher

    We’ve stuck stubbornly to our forecast for the 10Y to reach 4.75 for nearly a year, betting that sticky inflation would force the Fed’s hand. We came within 6 bps of new highs this morning after retail sales soared 0.7% (expected 0.4%) in July.

    Futures held on to their lows, though the pre-opening shenanigans haven’t yet begun (keep a close eye on DXY and VIX.) We don’t expect the bulls to give up SPX’s 50-day (4443.43) without a fight.

    The challenge for bears now, as back in October 2022 when the 10Y tagged our 4.26 target [see: More OPEX Games] is that we’re up against OPEX (Friday.)  Back then, it meant the 10Y’s channel collapsed and the next leg higher was postponed until after equities’ year-end run for the barn. If TPTB have their way, SPX’s 50-day backtest would be a springboard for a nice bounce.

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  • Charts I’m Watching Aug 14, 2023

    Futures are loitering around the 50-day SMA, leaving SPX’s tag still up in the air.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 11, 2023

    Futures just tagged our 50-day SMA target, but need to drop another 20 points if SPX is to reach its.

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  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 10, 2023

    Still on the road, will catch up tonight.

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 9, 2023

    I will be traveling the next two days. All of our targets for equities, currencies, and commodities remain unchanged.

  • Charts I’m Watching: Aug 8, 2023

    Futures are down sharply as yesterday’s currency moves and VIX smackdown are being unwound by Moody’s banking downgrades.  At least banks aren’t waking up to a 40% windfall profit tax such as Italy just imposed.

    This timely bit of truthiness certainly has the potential to get ES to our SMA50 target in the lead up to Thursday’s CPI print. As for XLF, the timing couldn’t be worse.

    Fear not, the Fed is already tapping the brakes.

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  • CPI Coming Up

    Futures are up moderately, primarily on the DXY stall and the usual overnight VIX smackdown. But, most attention will be focused on Thursday’s CPI print.

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