The eminis completed a nice Head & Shoulders Pattern, but bounced off the neckline… right into a backtest of the broken purple channel midline. The 60-min RSI chart shows the dilemma: support on the rising purple channel, resistance at the falling yellow midline. I would normally give a 6-month channel midline the benefit of the … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: May 2013
The USDJPY pulled back from the brink, EURUSD is trying to make the best of the dollar’s momentary vulnerability, and stocks are wondering whether (if bad news is once again good) this morning’s data is “bad enough.” We’re watching to see whether or not SPX’s drop at the end of yesterday’s session completes the wave … continue reading →
While the Nikkei hasn’t officially been on our hit list, it’s certainly been fascinating to watch. Today, it earned its very own page on pebblewriter.com. Late last night (early this morning?) I updated the USDJPY [HERE] which was at a critical point in its own rally to the moon. It recently broke down through the … continue reading →
Lots of red out there this morning. SPX just retraced .886 retrace of yesterday’s spike higher – a good place for a bounce. We should get a bounce here, but keep an eye on the primary target: the purple channel midline, currently around 1642.19. UPDATE: 10:00 AM SPX just bounced up through the falling purple … continue reading →
After recently completing a Crab Pattern at the 2.24 extension, USDJPY fell back through the purple channel midline to the 1.272 Fib level, where it is staging the backtest of the midline we forecast last week. While I expect the backtest to be successful, meaning a leg lower is in store, the 部屋に象 is the … continue reading →
NYA recently reached an important turning point. More than any other index, it suggests that a significant downturn has arrived. The only hitch? Its Harmonic Patterns have typically been overruled by SPX. In April 2010, NYA was still 3.4% away from its 61.8% Fib level when SPX, 0.7% away from its 61.8% retracement, reversed sharply. … continue reading →
If the 3-day weekend ramp job can hold, it’ll be 20 positive Tuesdays in a row. But there’s a catch: ES just tagged the .618 Fib retrace at the top of what looks like a decent falling channel and a backtest of the rising purple channel’s .75 line. A close up: In short, holding these … continue reading →
Staying short this morning. The short-term and longer-term pictures are turning more negative, and aside from bounces and/or Bernanke going on CNBC and yelling “psych! It’s QE forever!” this slide could gain even more momentum today. In looking at some of the bigger picture charts, the daily and weekly RSI picture is rather gloomy. The … continue reading →
As vicious as yesterday’s reversal seemed, it was only a fraction of size of the three previous downturns. -4.4% over six sessions in late December 2012 -3.1% over four sessions in February -3.9% over five sessions in April 2013 SPX should catch up with the futures this morning, reaching the purple midline around 1632-1633. We … continue reading →
NOTE: Most of you outside the US are now able to access the site, aside from a few in Europe and Asia. So, the propagation should be nearly complete. Apparently the links on previous posts need to also convert over from https to http. There’s a process that will do this automatically for every … continue reading →