If our charts are to be believed, we are on the cusp of a significant move in currency pairs and the bond yields.
10Y yields plunged back in March, then began rebounding via a long, drawn-out flag pattern that broke down in late June. Since then, it has been tracing out an equally long, drawn-out triangle pattern that has also broken down.
It has correlated nicely with DXY, albeit with a 2-3 day lead. If TNX’s latest breakdown holds, we might finally see the next leg down in DXY and the long-awaited, significant moves in USDJPY and EURUSD.
Needless to say, the dollar’s demise hasn’t helped the trade deficit, which just reached all-time highs despite White House’s claims to have strengthen the trade picture.
It also doesn’t bode well for stocks. If the past is any indication, October could be a very difficult month.
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