pebblewriter

Tag: nasdaq

  • Update on COMP: Oct 13, 2022

    In our last update on COMP [see: Apr 25, 2022 Update] I noted that after reversing within 0.3% of our 16,158 upside target in November 2021……COMP had dropped to our 12,813 downside target three separate times. I wondered what it would take for COMP to reach our next lower target at 10,122.

    [Last November] we identified two downside targets: 12,813 and 10,122.  COMP topped out at 16,212 the very next session and reached 12,813 on Feb 24.  And, again on Mar 14. And, again today. What the heck is going on? After three separate attempts, is 10,122 still on the table?

    As we found out earlier this morning, 10,122 was definitely on the table.  In fact, tagging it has touched off one of the biggest single-day bounces we’ve seen in ages.

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  • Update on COMP: Apr 25, 2022

    Almost five months ago, we noted that COMP was nearing an important turning point: our 16,158 target. From Close Enough on Nov 19:

    COMP is probably no more than a day or two away from a very significant top.

    We identified two downside targets: 12,813 and 10,122.  COMP topped out at 16,212 the very next session and reached 12,813 on Feb 24.  And, again on Mar 14. And, again today. What the heck is going on? After three separate attempts, is 10,122 still on the table?

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  • Update on COMP: Jan 25, 2022

    Less than a week ago, we penned an update on COMP that was aptly entitled COMP Signals More Pain Ahead accompanied by the following chart.

    COMP complied yesterday, racing past our initial downside target to tag the next one at 13,213.50 before a massive bounce back to the .618 Fib.

    Is it safe to wade back in?

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  • Update on COMP: Nov 4, 2021

    We’ve been keeping an eye on COMP lately, as it has often been a solid indicator of froth in the markets. It recently reached our next upside target of 15,667, continuing up to today’s high of 15,966.

    The gains are especially noteworthy, as just 5 weeks ago COMP completed a very bearish H&S Pattern that targeted a drop through its 200-DMA for a 11.4% selloff from its Sep 7 highs. Instead, it joined the everything rally which began on Oct 4 and began a 10.5% climb.Does this rally have legs, or is it ready to roll over?

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  • Update on COMP: Aug 11, 2020

    COMP: the index that thinks it’s a beanstalk. It’s heavily weighted toward stocks which have done particularly well in the face of the global pandemic: AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, FB and GOOGL. So, a reversal at current levels would be a big deal.

    Investors might wish to know, then, that it just bumped up against a chart feature that suggests a reversal.COMP did a pretty good job of paying attention to channels over the years — at least until 2018. As we noted in our March 2018 update {see: Update on COMP], it had just arrived at our 7619.21 target – the top of a long-term channel and an important Fibonacci extension level. Our comments at the time:

    …with a FOMC rate hike due out tomorrow and more on the way, the range of possible outcomes is broad — from new highs to the next lower Fib level at 6227.06.

    It reversed as forecast, but pushed back above 7619 in June. The breakout was strong enough, but it fell back below 7619 in October, tagged our 6227 target, then spent almost a year trying to break out once and for all.By February 2020, it had popped nearly 30% above 7619. Then came the pandemic. The 33% plunge caught many true believers by surprise – though there were plenty of warning signs in both the index and its major components.

    The recovery was even more spectacular, with COMP gaining 68% since March 23. Given the amount of money that’s been thrown at the market, investors could be forgiven for believing the rally has plenty of room to go.

    The charts suggest otherwise.

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  • Update on COMP: Dec 7, 2018

    Don’t look now, but COMP is approaching our 6760 target.  As we discussed on Oct 10 [see: Plan B] COMP faced significant downside if its 200-DMA didn’t hold.

    Bottom line, it didn’t.  It was off as much as 13.3% last month before beginning a bounce that was destined to fail.  Next week, it will get another chance at tagging some meaningful support around 6760-6800 – depending on whether it happens Monday or later in the week.

    Members will recall we had two near misses on the 200-DMA in Feb and April, followed by a breakout that defied logic.  Now, two months after it broke down through the important moving average, COMP has been laid low.

    Can it hold here, or will AAPL’s continuing meltdown drag it even lower?

    My 144.48 target for AAPL remains unchanged since Nov 14, the day it broke below its SMA200 [see: When Push Comes to Shove.]  Then……and, now.

    Stay tuned.

  • Update on COMP: Mar 20, 2018

    Facebook is only 5.5% of the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), but yesterday’s plunge [see: Facebook Flops] was a good reminder to update our outlook.

    In our last update [see: Nov 6, 2017 Update] we identified 7619.37 as our next upside target.

    At this point, it’s pushing into the top quadrant of the rising white channel where it will soon reach the top of the rising purple channel — currently at 7260.

    It probably won’t stop there, though, as the 1.618 and the rising white channel intersect at 7619.37 at the end of the year. It’s too convenient a target to ignore. And, I fully expect it to reach it unless we get a nasty surprise on the geopolitical front.

    As it happened, COMP’s tag of 7619 was delayed by the February correction. It topped out last week and has since retreated 352 points — about 4.5%.  Since COMP reached its important 1.618 Fibonacci extension and the top of a well-formed channel, it’s fair to ask whether there’s more downside ahead.

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