Moment of Truth for Bonds

ZN broke down from its rising red channel back on the 6th. Since then, it has found support in a falling channel – from which it is now threatening to break down.This is a moment of truth for bonds and the many correlated assets such as GC, shown above.  Stocks might not be amused. continued … continue reading →

Breakout or Headfake?

Today’s post could be an extension of yesterdays, with more beneficiaries of the shutdown such as Target and Lowes reporting big beats.  Winners and losers. Curiously, ES failed to make a new high yesterday even thoughy SPX briefly rose above its February highs. You’ve always had to worry about predatory traders and specialists trying to … continue reading →

A New Analog: EURUSD

As noted back on Feb 21, the EURUSD has broken down from its rising channel (white) and accelerated to the downside, breaking the Jan 4 1.2996 low and the psychologically important 1.30 level. The intersection of the purple .618 and two white channels at 1.38 will have to wait (till my next visit across the … continue reading →

What Recovery?

It was thoughtful of eurostat to include the US in their chart.  Funny, that’s not the chart one would picture based on the MSM’s steady drumbeat of “recovery!” Germany, which had previously taken an ambivalent attitude about the soaring euro, might change its tune following its worst GDP print since Q408.  The main culprit?  Exports, … continue reading →

Down the Rabbit Hole: Part 2

Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.”   “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”                                     ― Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures … continue reading →

DX Update: Dec 2, 2012

The US dollar remains in a rising channel within long-term channels that point to very different outcomes. The rising white channel intersects just ahead with the larger falling white channel upper bound, the rising red channel mid-line and the 75% bound of the falling purple channel. Whether the red or purple channel carries the day … continue reading →