Contagion

How bad will it get? That’s the question slamming markets this morning as Credit Suisse is again in the headlines for all the wrong reasons: The Saudi National Bank has cut them off from further financial assistance. The CDS have soared and the stock is getting ever closer to zero. Futures were essentially flat after … continue reading →

The ECB Chooses Stagflation

Futures are off moderately in the wake of the ECB’s decision to impose a 75 bps rate hike – its highest ever – on an economy already reeling from spiraling inflation and weakening economic activity. continued for members… … continue reading →

Backtest Complete

Breakouts from well-established falling channels are usually followed by backtests of that channel. This is how bulls put all that nasty bearishness behind them, freeing stocks for another leg up. Except, it doesn’t always turn out that way.  Sure, ES nailed our backtest target. But will it follow through with a respectable bounce? continued for … continue reading →

Fixing Gas Prices

Gasoline futures (RBOB) have reached our 200-day moving average target set on March 3 [see: The Devil You Know] after having broken out of a falling flag pattern.  Then… …nothing would be as effective at punishing Russia and helping to solve the inflation problem as crashing the oil market…If oil does retreat, stocks should too. … continue reading →

No Pressure

Futures are off about 2% following yesterday’s FOMC announcement and press conference – the closest we’ll probably ever get to a mea culpa – which was accompanied by the usual algo nonsense. Suffice it to say, traders have come to their senses and markets are once again reflecting the likelihood of the Fed tightening into … continue reading →

The ECB’s Fantasy World

You can’t make this stuff up. With May inflation at 8.1% across the euro zone, the Governing Council is leaving rates unchanged with an increase of 25 bps to be unleashed in July to “ensure that inflation stabilizes toward its 2% target over the medium term.” Sigh… Futures continue forming their triangle with a denouement … continue reading →

Why the Market Didn’t Correct Today

Hint: it’s the same reason the “market” hasn’t corrected much at all for the past six weeks.  And, no, there’s no free lunch involved. The day started with some tragic news out of Brussels.  ISIS terrorists attacked innocent civilians at the airport and a metro station, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.  Brussels is the de … continue reading →

Down the Rabbit Hole: Part 2

Alice laughed: “There’s no use trying,” she said; “one can’t believe impossible things.”   “I daresay you haven’t had much practice,” said the Queen. “When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.”                                     ― Lewis Carroll, Alice’s Adventures … continue reading →