pebblewriter

Tag: chart pattern

  • Deutsche Bank: Kann Dieses Schwein Pfeifen?

    There’s a lovely English figure of speech which suggests the ridiculousness of something happening: “when pigs fly.”  In German, the same sentiment can be expressed by the expression “ich glaub mein Schwein pfeift” which means “I believe my pig whistles.”  DB is surely trying, but it’s having a hell of a time whistling a happy tune.

    We last visited the stock on March 13 [see: When Push Comes to Shove] when it was threatening to break out of a small consolidating triangle after breaking down below our previous short signal at 11.  From the Mar 13 post:

    A breakdown from a falling channel is incredibly bearish, but a move back above the bottom of the falling channel (around 9.50) would be net positive. To get there, it will need to break above the red TL and will then face its SMA200, now at 10.32.

    A long position with very tight stops would make sense for those willing to roll the dice. However, if it can’t retake the channel bottom, then it remains a dead bank walking and a good short.Obviously, shorting it in the hopes that the ECB lets it fail would entail some risk. No doubt the ECB is trying to figure out a way to restructure it in such a way that it’ll survive and, ideally, not take the rest of the world down with it. Until then, I think it’ll remain on life support.

    As it turned out, the triangle broke down and not up.  The stock spent 6 weeks being propped up around $8/share before finally breaking down again and shedding 28% in a nifty little falling channel.

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    Deutsche Bank has been a terrific source of trading ideas which have paid off nicely
    over the years.  While the stock has lost 32% since our initial forecast in Sep 2016, our
    long and short trade ideas have totaled 237%. CLICK HERE for forecasts and results.

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    It finally bottomed at 6.49 in June and bounced back up above 8 where it collided with overhead resistance and is currently backing off in the wake of the latest restructuring news.

    Make no mistake about it, DB is in a world of hurt.  Given that it’s the 15th largest bank in the world with over $40 trillion in derivatives, its demise could devastate the financial system.  Can this pig whistle?  If so, is it just whistling past the graveyard?

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  • The Only Charts That Matter

    Note: Final 24 hours for our celebratory Membership Special.  Annual memberships, normally $1,750, are being offered for only $640.42, less than $2/day for daily forecasts and live, intraday market commentary geared to helping you avoid and even profit from the volatility we’re seeing.  For more details and to sign up, CLICK HERE. 

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    I sat down to update the CL and GC charts tonight, but quickly realized there’s no point until the following pattern is resolved.  How about it, central bankers?  Are you ready to let the markets run where they will?

    Because, ES’ Head & Shoulders Pattern below targets 1530 — another 17% lower.  For anyone keeping track, that’s a 28% drop from last May’s highs.  Today’s key level, 1837ish.  A close below here would be quite bearish.

    2016-01-19 ES wkly HSBTW, the only reason the above chart is where it is…?  This chart: the USDJPY — which has gone nowhere for the past 14 months.  It’s also perched on a precipice.

    2016-01-19 USDJPY daily HSPut them together, and the relationship is unmistakable.  Every time USDJPY dips to the bottom of the red channel (at the yellow arrows), ES takes a dive.  In fact, the dives have been deeper with each successive dip.

    2016-01-19 USDJPY v ESSPX completed its own H&S Pattern last week [see: Are You Happy?], but hasn’t been able to rebound because it was waiting on ES to arrive at its own line in the sand.

    So, come on, central bankers.  We’re curious.  Have you more tricks up your sleeves; or, are you finally ready to take the quotation marks off the “markets?”

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