Still Not Transitory

At some point – perhaps after six months of hot inflation data – the Fed will be forced to admit that inflation pressure are not transitory. This morning we saw evidence that March personal incomes spiked by 21.1%, the most since 1946. Personal spending for the month shot up 4.2%, the most since last June. And, PCE’s 2.3% is the biggest since 2018.

S&P futures are calling BS on the whole modest/transitory inflation story – off over 20 points so far.

And, VIX’s bullish (bearish for stocks) 10/20 cross hasn’t gone away.

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