As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.

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Nonfarm payrolls expanded by only 73,000 in July. But, it was June’s revision from 147,000 to 14,000 and May’s from 125,000 to 19,000 that shocked investors. There should now be no doubt that a recession has begun.

Rather than acknowledge that his tariffs are responsible, Trump responded to the weak data by shooting the messenger, firing widely respected BLS Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on charges of being partisan.

Equities didn’t take well to news of the economic slowdown nor the realization that the White House will be providing future “data” releases to McEntarfer’s replacement.

ES completed the backtest of its former highs.

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As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.

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The meltup continues, driven by resolution of the trade negotiations with Japan and the Philippines. While a 15% tariff is lower than was threatened, it will still lead to diminished profits and/or higher prices – risks which are both being ignored by algos.

Oh, and meme stocks are back.

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As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.

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Stocks continue to be propped up at the previous highs, as seen on ES’ 15-min chart below.

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As a reminder, I will be posting only weekly from July 9 through August 6.

♦ ♦ ♦

It has now been over a month that SPX has traded within 2.5% of its former all-time highs. That’s over a month of flip-flopping, ignoring fundamentals, and pretending that tariffs won’t make any difference,

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Futures are up modestly after a stronger than expected jobs report.

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DXY and EURUSD have both reached our targets from April.

USDJPY reached its in April.

There is plenty of discussion re DXY’s collapse, but the administration’s expressed desire for a cheaper dollar has probably run its course for now.

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It’s a trick question, as every new high is technically a double top for at least a few moments. But, here, we’re talking about the prospects of something more significant.

Like so many before it, the April 11 Death Cross was a head fake, signaling a concerted effort by the administration and their supporters to support markets (after crashing them.) Now, the 50-day SMA is about to cross above the 200-day, signaling a Golden Cross.

At the same time, we can see numerous technical and chart challenges facing the markets – issues which were never resolved, but merely postponed. These challenges suggest a double top isn’t out of the question.

Which one will prevail?

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Equities are up slightly on the last trading day of Q2.

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Core PCE YoY came in at 2.7%, slightly hotter than expected and still too far away from the Fed’s 2% goal to justify any talk of a rate cut. At the same time, personal income came in at -0.4% versus +0.4% expected.

Futures slightly backed off their overnight ramp, but still point to new all-time highs for SPX.

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ES continues melting up toward its previous all-time highs. Granted, it’s happening mostly on the back of VIX in after-hours, but it’s happening all the same.

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