On the Cusp

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SPX reversed at the very last possible moment, yesterday, before the meltup could be labeled a breakout. For now, we remain nervously short from 2361.32 for what should be at least a 10-pt gain.

Why “nervously”? As we discussed yesterday, the good news for bulls is they’re at the cusp of a strong breakout. The good news for bears is they’re at the cusp of a breakdown. That’s right. This is one of those critical turning points that will determine the course of the next few months — and, who gets to celebrate come Monday.

Of course, the French election is only one in a list of several potentially landscape altering events scheduled for next week. There’s also the possibility of a government shutdown, potential nuclear war in North Korea, and the very real and expanding wars in Syria, Afghanistan and wherever else we’re about to bomb.

One thing’s for sure…real, live investors, speculators and traders have woken up to the risk. Remember the string of VIX plunges (the yellow arrows) below the yellow channel bottom? As of a few weeks ago, it was averaging one of every four sessions. Not so much, any more. Might markets exhibit a little nervousness in the lead up to the week ahead? Stay tuned.