November 2015 Results

November was a breeze compared to October’s frantic moon shot.  Our results came in at 10.82%, a slight improvement over last month and a generous margin over the S&P 500’s 0.05%.

The biggest challenge was the number of gaps — both up and down — at the opening bell.  Seven of the eight sessions during the decline (Nov 3-13) involved gaps down of 10+ points.  To make matters worse, almost all of them came after a bullish close the previous day.

Needless to say, this made for a few nervous nights.  Bears are typically punished severely for such foolhardy stunts as holding short overnight.

All turned out well, though, as we both called the top and came up with a fairly accurate target 72 points lower (not to mention the strong bounce afterwards.)  The daily chart from Beware the Bat, posted on Nov 3:

2015-11-03 SPX Bat 0618The daily chart from yesterday’s close shows our forecast was pretty darned close.

2015-12-01 SPX November dailyI anticipate that December will be full of more twists and turns, given the highly-anticipated FOMC rate decision.  The ECB and BoJ are also expected to stir things up.

I will continue to look for opportunities for larger, longer-term swing trades.  But, I suspect scalping will generate better returns with less risk in the coming month.

November 2015 Monthly

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Membership Promotion

Thanks to all our new members.  I appreciate your business, and will do my best to continue generating reliable forecasts.  For those who aren’t yet members, please be aware that we are currently running our best promotion of the year.

New annual members can save almost 60% off the price of a regular annual subscription, and almost 70% off a year’s worth of monthly payments.  It works out to about $2/day.  Just enter the coupon code “Black Friday” where indicated.  Better yet, for only $200 more, you can lock in your rate for as long as you’re a member.

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The Fine Print:

  1. Represents performance of a theoretical portfolio, where SPX is bought or shorted based on signals generated by my research.  Your mileage will vary.
  2. Assumes no leverage:  100% long, 100% short or 100% cash.
  3. Prices listed reflect the index at the time tops/bottoms are called and/or trades are made and are believed, but not guaranteed, to be accurate.  Dividends, transaction costs and any hedging costs are ignored.
  4. Results are since inception of pebblewriter.com on March 22, 2012.
  5. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.  See Disclosures and Use Agreement for important information.

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