XLF

updated: Mar 14, 2016

Once in a while a forecast comes together so nicely that people accuse you of having an unfair advantage.  From one of our members on Friday:

Are you sure you don’t have a time machine to travel to the future?  On Feb 10, you had a upper target of XLF at 22.51.  The actual close today is 22.49.

In all the excitement over the broader market, I haven’t paid much attention to XLF since Feb 10, when it closed at 20.28.  From that update:

Looking ahead, I’ve identified a few potential targets.  It think the next downside target has to be the purple .886 at 19.26 where it intersects with an expanded falling red channel midline in the next couple of days.

2016-02-10 XLF daily 1000If it fails, the white .382 and that midline intersect in mid-April.  This would also complete a pretty clear C=A corrective wave.

If it holds, the immediate upside case is pretty much limited to a backtest of the broken yellow TL and white channel bottom at 22.51 in mid-March.

XLF bottomed out the next day at 19.53, 0.27 from our downside target.  It then rallied rallied over the next month, reaching 22.52 on Friday, just .01 from our upside target.2016-03-13 XLF daily 2100It’s a nifty 15.3% return based solely on chart patterns, harmonics and technical analysis — and, a sharp poke in the eye for those who insist technical analysis doesn’t work.

Of course, nailing a target is a double-edged sword.  There’s the joy of a job well done, but the fear of badly botching the next forecast.  With that said, we’ll take a look at what to expect.

continued for members...


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