It Ain’t Normal

Everywhere you look, another hedgie is throwing in the towel — pronouncing the market overbought and susceptible to a big drop as a result of Fed normalizing.

I agree that rate normalization would be devastating for stocks.  But, folks, an additional 1/4% in Fed Funds is far from normal.  Call me when the 10-year gets back over 6%.  In the meantime, all the gnashing of teeth should just stop — at least as far as rates are concerned.

Investors should, on the other hand, be concerned about the veracity of information pouring out of Washington, the quality (and lack of) earnings growth, and the ability of central bankers to keep all the plates spinning a little longer.

The apparent equilibrium is tenuous at best, and largely relies on the inability or unwillingness of the few remaining active, fundamental investors to recognize the tricks and gimmicks being used to keep equities on the rise.

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