There was something for everyone, yesterday. ES plunged 30 points from its highs – exactly halfway to our 2533 target, sending VIX past our initial upside target and within sight of the next. At that point, VIX plunged 14%, sending ES 21 points higher to nail our bounce target.
At this point, it’s off about 7 — bouncing off the SMA20 (now at 2571.64) and nearing the SMA10. All in all, it’s been a pretty wild ride – one that I suspect isn’t quite over. While the dollar seems to have stabilized for the moment, USDJPY is clinging to support by its fingertips.
continued for members…
Going around the horn, EURUSD is holding steady on a midline backtest, with the SMA200 almost up to our target area.
But, the USDJPY looks to be in trouble, with a dip to the SMA200 looking ever more likely. 
CL and RB are hanging in there, not advancing but not breaking down yet.
This leaves ES with a decent shot still at 2533, especially if USDJPY lets go. 
Remember, the equivalent for SPX would be 2536.
If ES moves back above its SMA10 at 2579.90 (SPX: 2583.70), all bets are off. As always, keep an eye on VIX (target = 12.50-12.72) and USDJPY. I suspect CL and RB will be content to hold their ground for now.
As I mentioned yesterday, I have to be out of the office this morning. I hope to be back around 11:30AM.
UPDATE: 1:20 PM
Four hours later, and a whole lot of nothin’. Futures fell a little further, but are right back where they were at the open.
Note the setup for a H&S Pattern that targets our target area – the two 1.618 extensions and the channel midlines.
Here’s an update on RB. The yellow TL should provide a pretty solid signal.
UPDATE: 2:30 PM
I wish I had more clarity for you. But, like it so fond of doing, ES is sitting right at resistance — the SMA10 and the falling channel top. Unless it hits 2533 by the end of the session (which isn’t that likely) there’s a good chance that today’s close will be a head fake one way or the other.
In other words, 50/50 odds at this point. I’m running out for my next appointment and won’t have a chance to post again before the close.
GLTA.
