Charts I’m Watching: Nov 29, 2012

SPX seems destined to go up and tag the .786 Fib at 1414.81.  I’m closing my shorts on the opening and will possibly take another crack at shorting there if SPX shows any weakness.  Apparently yesterday’s dip is all the B-wave we’re going to get.  Swing traders will do well to remain long, but be careful around that Fib level.  Consider trailing stops.

EURUSD bumping up against the May 2011 channel again — negative divergence up through 4 hours, but not on daily.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

For traders, 1417.92 is a decent place to try a short — the .618 of the drop from 1464.02.  I’ll try one with tight stops.  Leaving my core long position in place, raising trailing stops to around 1410.  1424 is just above.

UPDATE:  11:33 AM

Got a nice reaction just above the .618 at 1419.  There are two channels that could bring things to a screeching halt right here — seen below in yellow and purple.  So, 1419 should get some respect, with a pullback to the previous high of 1409 /channel line likely.

Our forecast remains on track, with the current leg up due to complete any time now.  We’ll take a look at the forecast, the analog, and any potential bumps in the road.

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