Futures are off about 0.50% as we approach Wednesday’s FOMC decision and a slew of important economic data. continued for members… … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: October 2022
September PCE held steady at 0.3% MoM and 6.2% YoY while personal spending came in hotter than expected. This should officially close the door on any speculation regarding a Fed pivot. Coming after disappointing earnings and guidance from the largest, most important corporations, one might expect at least a slight decline in the markets. One … continue reading →
Q3 GDP came in at 2.6%, beating the 2.3% consensus and of course Q2’s -0.6%. While good news for the economy, it does little to advance the narrative that the Fed might be ready to pare future rate hikes. Nevertheless, VIX fell… …so futures rose slightly on the news.continued for members… … continue reading →
Despite some of the market heavyweights taking big hits from earnings/outlooks (Microsoft MSFT, -7.72%, Alphabet GOOG, -7.86%, Texas Instruments TXN, -6.41%) futures are off less than 1%. Don’t look for a fundamental justification. This rally, like most this year, was built on VIX and currency manipulation. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off modestly in quiet trading as we approach the open. continued for members… … continue reading →
ES rallied 7.3% off the Oct 13 lows to tag our target at the white channel midline – also the 20% correction mark. This is the same target we added on Oct 14 [see: It Wasn’t Oversold] as it’s an important line in the sand. continued for members… … continue reading →
With over $2 trillion in equity options expiring today, is it any wonder that in the past hour the futures market went from this… …to this? continued for members… … continue reading →
Unemployment claims came in lower than expected, further dashing the hopes of those praying for a Fed pivot. Meanwhile, the OPEX levitation continues. continued for members… … continue reading →
It’s no wonder homebuilder confidence fell so sharply……since they knew about the decline occurring in permits and starts. This is the worst print since the depths of the pandemic in June 20 and is precisely what we warned about in July 2021 [see: Time to Sell Your Home?] Recall that in the 19% house price … continue reading →
Another OPEX week overnight ramp…same cast of characters, same outcome. continued for members… … continue reading →