Stocks are drifting lower this morning as we close out the month – the 7th positive month in a row. A number of important patterns are being tested, including a Fibonacci fan from the Aug 19 lows. continued for members… … continue reading →
Monthly Archives: August 2021
Historically, rising inflation has always produced an increase in interest rates. Investors demanded higher rates to keep up with inflation, and bond prices dropped (yields rose) commensurately. The Fed has had to cope with this precept ever since its inception.The correlation between the two has been as immutable as, say, COVID-19 and 2020 indoor weddings.Just … continue reading →
Powell’s virtual Jackson Hole testimony is coming up. But, the cat’s already out of the bag. The other Fed governors have spoken. Inflation is clearly more than transitory. It’s (past) time to start tapering the massive asset purchases. continued for members… … continue reading →
When uber-dove Jim Bullard says it, you start to pay attention. Joining the chorus of Fed presidents calling for a tapering and subsequent rate hike, Bullard said “We will be able to get to a good consensus on the committee and get to a good wind-down process. It does seem that we are coalescing around … continue reading →
If you liked yesterday, today is shaping up as more of the same. But, there are still a few warning signs tugging at the market’s sleeve. continued for members… … continue reading →
Yesterday’s meltup, like most Mondays, had a very clear objective: reach new highs and protect them at all costs. It’s also a pattern typical of most weeks during which a Fed meeting (e.g. Jackson Hole) is scheduled. The mechanics of achieving this objective haven’t changed in the past 10 years: crush volatility, ramp oil futures, … continue reading →
Futures are continuing their meltup in the pre-market on a 4% bounce in crude oil and the usual overnight slump in VIX. continued for members… … continue reading →
COVID deaths continue to mount and the return to work pushes further into the future, a negative backdrop for equities at a time when they’re losing momentum from the reflation factors. Futures are off mildly after bouncing off their overnight lows. continued for members… … continue reading →
The correction is gathering steam, with ES off 40 points earlier this morning before getting a bounce. From a technical standpoint the culprit is VIX, which broke out of the falling channel which has guided stocks higher since March 2020. Our downside targets remain unchanged. continued for members… … continue reading →
Futures are off moderately this morning, failing to hold the SMA10 overnight after testing the SMA20 on its way to a lower low during yesterday’s session. continued for members… … continue reading →