VIX just completed a very well-formed bearish Gartley Pattern [see last post – Are We There Yet?], indicating it MIGHT have topped at 19.09. In addition, VIX just bounced off its upper bollinger band, and there’s a shooting star on the 30 minute candle.
SPX is also a few points from completing a bullish Bat Pattern (this chart is from last week — will update when I get the chance).
Lastly, we’re clearly in a falling wedge since May 12 (easiest to see in eminis.) The apex is tomorrow at 1313. Importantly, 1313 is also the .786 retrace of the 1370 high — a logical spot to arrest the decline IF that’s going to happen. It’s also marks the bottom of the rising wedge since Mar ’09.
At 1318.51, SPX was off 52 — 3.8% from its high. If we do reach 1313 on SPX tomorrow, that would be a 4.3 decline from the top, on the lower end but within the range of declines recorded by the 87-day cycle over the past 4 years.
I remain open to the possibility that 1370 was the P, and that the bounce up ahead (if it happens) is a corrective wave on the way down. If so, we should see SPX contained below 1370.
All to say — the market’s ST direction is very much a toss up at this juncture. But, for those bearishly inclined, keep one eye on the VIX.