Originally posted privately for a retainer client: Apr 3, 2016
Silver looks pretty dicey as a short to me. Here’s my take. There are two possible major channels that are quite bearish using log scale……and a nice, supportive TL using arithmetic scale.Either way you look at it, SI has tested and reversed off its white .786 at 13.817. It hasn’t broken out of the falling purple channel yet……but, it’s working on a rising white channel that’s aiming at a breakout… …and, has tested and bounced off its SMA200 at the bottom of that channel. Even if the white channel and SMA200 broke down, you’ve got support at 14.623 – only 2 1/2% below current levels. Not worth the aggravation.
This is not a great setup for a short, and I wouldn’t advise pursuing one at this time.
Bottom line, there are much more interesting setups to pursue, such as if/when USDJPY or CL reverses higher the next time in order to save the day.