Update on Oil: Jan 25, 2016

In our last update on Jan 6, we noted that USDJPY had reached 34.17 our next downside target, commenting:

In an unrigged market, it would suggest a possible bounce… But, the noose of USDJPY is still hanging around CL’s neck, and could easily drag it lower.

USDJPY needed another leg lower to reach our downside target.  So, CL dropped through three additional levels of support, dipping through our 29.61 target before finally getting an unbelievable 18.8% two-day bounce — the equivalent of 3,000 points on the Dow.

Needless to say, if the Dow had gained 3,000 points in two days, even the MSM would wonder if something fishy was going on.   But, CL’s bounce has attracted no such incredulity.

Most observers continue to frame its moves in terms of fundamental supply and demand.  But, as we’ve noted countless times, CL has become just another tool by which stocks are manipulated higher via algorithmic trading.  But, there’s the rub.

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