Update on EURUSD: Nov 25, 2016

In our last update on EURUSD, I forecast a continuation of the drop originally forecast in September.  From the Oct 24, 2016 Update on EURUSD:

June’s .618 tag suggests a further drop to at least the .786 at 1.0756 and possibly the .886 at 1.0647. [The correlation with SPX] suggests EURUSD will blow through those Fib levels…and head straight for the rising white channel bottom at 1.0602.

For the past week, EURUSD has been testing the white channel bottom, slightly overshooting our 1.0602 target to test the Dec 3, 2015 lows.  At yesterday’s low of 1.0517, the pair had shed 5.9% since our September top call.

The move seems to have caught most analysts off guard.  Yet, the catalyst for the decline was clear, well in advance, if one was willing to look at the big picture — which, oddly enough, revolves around the price of oil.

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