Update on EURUSD: Jul 7, 2015

When we last looked at the big picture in EURUSD in March, it appeared the pair was about to backtest the broken .618 Fib level at 1.1210.  It got there, but a couple weeks later than expected due to a deep retracement of the March lows in April.2015-07-07-EURUSD daily CU 2200Instead of respecting the Fib and then reversing, it managed to inch higher over the subsequent month to complete a Bat Pattern (part of the apparatus that levered stocks higher. )

It has appeared to me over the past several months that EURUSD is tracing out a Flag Pattern that would tag either (or both) the upper bound at 1.1810 (the pale blue .382) or 1.0722 (the white .786 and purple .236.)

2015-07-07-EURUSD daily MCU 2200Given the turmoil in the eurozone at present, it would seem the lower target is much more likely.  Besides fitting two Fib Patterns and the Flag Pattern, it fits with the notion that the ECB will likely expand QE due to the Greek situation.

Stay tuned.


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