Update on AUDUSD: Dec 5, 2014

AUDUSD has reached a potentially important channel line at an overshoot to a Fib reversal point (the purple .886 below.) While the USD has been on a tear lately, we are looking for it to take a breather.  So, a little rally here for AUDUSD wouldn’t be surprising.

There was a nice reversal at the purple .786, so ultimately we should consider the possibility of a Butterfly Pattern to the purple 1.272 intersecting with the white .786.  It just doesn’t jibe with the rising white channel bottom, so that might be a stretch.

2014-12-05-AUDUSD weekly CU 0900IMHO, the big picture focuses more attention on the yellow .786 at .747 as the end of the reaction following the huge Crab Pattern completion — though a backtest of the previous high at .821 is the obvious bullish roadblock.

2014-12-05-AUDUSD weekly 0900Like just about everything else (except USDJPY), AUDUSD lost its positive correlation with SPX in late 2013 when central planners led “markets” down the rabbit hole.  It’s hard to know when/if this will change, but it’s worth checking in from time to time.

2014-12-05-AUDUSD v SPX 0900

 

A close-up:

 

 

2014-12-05-AUDUSD v SPX CU 0900

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