The Force Awakens

We’re winding down our celebratory Membership Special tonight.  Annual memberships, normally $1,750, are being offered for only $640.42, less than $2/day for daily forecasts and live, intraday market commentary that allow you to avoid and even profit from the volatility we’re seeing.  For more details and to sign up, CLICK HERE.  New members, don’t forget to follow @pebbletrades to get intraday notices of position changes.

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Friday was another fun day, with our call to short at the open and take profits at 1858.83 accounting for 1.8% of our ultimate 2.73% gain on the day.   We even got the close we had expected, at 1880.33.

Keep an eye on VIX just in case they go for a last minute monkey-hammering to get back to the H&S neckline at 1880 or so.

Today, it’s all about USDJPY which is either at or very near very important support.  Will it awaken?

After USDJPY finally found a bottom at 75 in October 2011, it soared — providing much-needed firepower for stocks to embark on an unending rally via the transmission channel known as the yen carry trade.

By the time USDJPY had retraced 61.8% of its losses from 147 in 1998, SPX had almost doubled from its October 2011 lows.   But, USDJPY had run out of firepower.  We suspected it at the time, but wouldn’t know for sure until months later, the BoJ had found its happy place.  USDJPY would trace in a range of 115-125 for the next year.2016-01-19 USDJPY 2011-2016Last week, it again reached the bottom of that range.  And, as expected, it is enjoying a strong rebound.  It’s been enough to send the futures as much as 32 points higher, and has even provided cover for CL — still languishing near 30.

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