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With the first quarter restored to green after SPX’s breakthrough yesterday [see: Why Today Was Critical], window dressing has reached new levels of absurdity. Investors can go back to complacently counting their profits, right? Not so fast.
The yen carry trade, the major driver of stock prices since 2011, has gone nowhere since melting down in February.
And, CL’s 60% spike — which has driven stocks’ recovery since February’s lows — could have serious repercussions for a monetary model built on the premise that inflation is too low. How many more breakouts — even fake ones — can consumers sustain before their budgets are strained beyond the breaking point?And, what of the US dollar? As it slips further, what will befall an economy that imports, well, pretty much everything — not to mention all the other currencies that are racing it to the bottom?The Powers That Be may have achieved their price objectives for now; but, the road ahead is anything but clear.
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