The Devil You Know

No surprises in Bernanke’s prepared remarks…  The housing recovery…isn’t.  A very predictable earnings report from BofA…  Naturally, the eminis are up 6.75.

Might as well play the upside, but be prepared to duck out at 1682-1683.

UPDATE:  9:35 AM

Just tagged 1683 – the .886 of yesterday’s mini-decline from 1684.51.  I’ll take a short position here, with stops at 1685.76.

We’ve analyzed the channel from 1538 to 1687 in April-May many times.  There are two basic ways to draw it: (1) connecting the tops – shown below in red; and, (2) connecting the bottoms – in purple.

As we’ve discussed, the latest channel rising from 1560 on Jun 24 features roughly the same slope as the channel from Apr-May.

It matches the purple channel slope best, but does so by virtue of its tops rather than its bottoms.

To me, this implies that the current purple channel is likely an acceleration channel within the primary channel: the red one.  In other words, look for the current purple channel to break down at some point and the red one to take over.

At present, the bottom of the red channel is around the white .618 at 1638.72 (very close to the SMA 50 at 1637.) I suppose Bernanke could say something shocking enough to produce a 44-pt plunge — but, I think he’s a little more savvy than that.

Other potential targets includes the white .786 at 1660, which intersects with the red channel bottom next Wednesday, and Jun 18 high of 1654 (next Tuesday.)  This second target looks to me like the best bet, as it’s also the intersection of the rising white channel .382 line.

While we’re waiting for Bernanke’s testimony, I’ll post some charts explaining how this fits with my potential scenarios for the remainder of the year.

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