If at First You Don’t Succeed…

Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →

Trick Play

With the overconfident bulls emboldened by the 200-day moving average looming just above, the bears have run a trick play and have the goal line in sight.To be sure, there are half a dozen defenders in between here and a score – starting with 380-lb All-Pro VIX.  Its 200-DMA at 16.54 is now resistance, and … continue reading →

Delay of Game

Nothing much has changed since yesterday.  SPX bounced around in our target zone, coming within a few points of its SMA200 as VIX went nowhere. The one notable exception was AAPL, which after tagging our downside target on Jan 3 $from last November [see: AAPL Discovers Gravity] reached our upside target yesterday. We originally charted … continue reading →

Manipulation is Nothing New

Yesterday, former SEC attorney Teresa Goody joined those calling for an investigation into the market action on December 24. It was hardly the biggest move we’ve seen over the past year. But, it resulted in new lows that ruffled a few feathers. Click the image to watch the interview, or just keep reading. Goody: …when … continue reading →

Backtest Accomplished

Members, remember to request access to @pebbletrades if you’d like intraday notices of important updates.  Only about 20% of you are currently signed up, and I’d like to use it more often to signal when important target tags or changes to a forecast occur. If your identity isn’t discernible from your Twitter handle, drop us … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Nov 5, 2018

Futures are back to flat, having bounced a bit on the Iran sanction news as it provided a modest (so far) bounce for oil and gas prices.The market has a wait and see feel to it this morning, with AAPL breaking down further……but, the algos all but ignoring it, focusing instead on dollar strength (TNX … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

The headlines have been coming fast and furious over the last 24 hours.  First, Trump’s tweet yesterday morning regarding trade negotiations with China touched off a rumor, declared false this morning, that a trade deal was imminent. But, SPX soared yesterday anyway. Then AAPL’s earnings came out.  The numbers were underwhelming; and, the company’s announcement … continue reading →

Coincidences and Consequences

It’s interesting how Khashoggi’s murder top-ticked oil and gas prices… …and, so soon after Trump’s latest demand that OPEC lower oil prices. I’m certainly not insinuating that Trump had anything to do with Khashoggi’s murder. But, OPEC ignored Trump’s Sep 20 demand.  Two weeks later, oil prices had spiked 10% higher.  Since Oct 3, the … continue reading →

Appearances

It is often said that there are two sides to every story and, somewhere in middle, lies the price of oil.  Okay, I paraphrased that just a bit. But, isn’t it odd that the day after the Saudis threaten $400/barrel oil, Donald Trump suddenly embraces the ludicrous “rogue killers” theory for the death of Washington Post … continue reading →

Are We There Yet?

SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA.  Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours.If … continue reading →