Charts I’m Watching: May 10, 2013

The market bounced back a little into the close yesterday, and recovered further overnight.  ES retraced a Fibonacci .886 of the initial plunge, and is hanging in the small channel established over the past week. We shorted SPX at 1635 yesterday, but weren’t sure whether or not the upside was completely done. This morning, there’s … continue reading →

The Best Laid Plans

The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST:  6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out.  EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →

USDJPY Update: Apr 8, 2013

The largest channels are all pretty loose fits, with plenty of incursions that make forecasting with them iffy at best. But, the smaller channels and Harmonic Patterns have been pretty effective.  Even though USDJPY has been running like a 燃える尾を持つ猫, there is growing risk of a downturn as it approaches 100. Consider the new channel … continue reading →

Because We Said So (wait, what’d we say?)

Just as we were getting a tad nervous about simmering currency wars, the G-7 announces there are no wars — everything is fine. Then, a G-7 official announces that everything is fine except for the Japanese — who are obviously sort of fighting a little war (see Brainard’s endorsement of same…) From Reuters about 30 … continue reading →

Race to the Bottom: Jan 22, 2013

Lots of big earnings announcements today:  JNJ, VZ, DD, TRV, DAL all missed, while GOOG, IBM, TXN, CA and AMD will report after the close.   It’s getting tougher to ignore slowing revenue growth, though the misses were almost universally blamed on Hurricane Sandy. But it’s the currencies that are getting most of the attention lately, … continue reading →