This Too Shall Pass

Housing starts and permits both fell, with starts missing expectations by a mile. Philadelphia Fed index also fell and saw a big miss. Capacity utilization and industrial output both missed and fell. So, naturally, the OPEX-obsessed S&P 500 futures are up 10 points. If things seem a little upside down at this point, know that … continue reading →

Algos: “We’ll Take it From Here”

More fun and games from the market-rigging department… If SPX’s rally has impressed you, check out the Nikkei.  Since its Aug 26 lows, NKD is up a whopping 13.8% — more than twice SPX’s impressive 6.0%.Do what I did and google “Japan” and “economy” for the past month and you’ll see nothing but negative stories … continue reading →

Did Kelly Evans Just Take the Red Pill?

In The Matrix, Morpheus presents Neo with a choice between a red pill and a blue pill and explains: You take the blue pill, the story ends.  You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe.  You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep … continue reading →

Test Passed, So Far…

ES spent 6 1/2 hours yesterday anguishing over the trend line/neckline we discussed.  When the Fed minutes came out, it even broke down a bit from the rising channel it had constructed overnight.  The breakdown seemed like it was sticking.  But, just after the close, WTI spiked and VIX dumped. That’s all it took to … continue reading →

Put Up or Shut Up

It’s now been almost a month since we posted our analog-based forecast [see: Analog Watch July 15.]  If it’s valid, we should see a sharp selloff over the next few days which ushers in 9-12 months of increased volatility and losses. From that post: Ideally, an analog provides exceptionally accurate forecasts of a very significant … continue reading →

Will This Time be Different?

We would almost always expect a big bounce off SPX’s 200-day moving average. Despite yesterday’s dip below the 200-DMA, the index dutifully crept back above it in time for the close.  And, the futures are currently showing an 8-point gain.Yet, if an analog I’ve been watching and our yield curve model are correct, this bounce … continue reading →

Stocks on Track for More Losses

Things are playing out as expected, with ES coming within 5 points of our next downside target (the SMA200) overnight. The chart receiving the most attention is the 10Y, which broke below 22.94 and is on its way to our 21.72 target.The one which should be receiving the most attention is SPX, which closed below … continue reading →

TSLA Skids Into an Important Target

We started posting about TSLA a little over a year ago when it dipped below important horizontal support [see: Can Tesla Avoid a Crash?] We’ve updated the charts multiple times since then, working to stay ahead of Musk’s obvious attempts to manipulate the stock.  The harmonic picture has been tricky due to the presence of … continue reading →