Are We There Yet?

SPX came within 7 points of our downside target yesterday, getting a midday bounce that couldn’t quite reach the 200-DMA.  Futures popped as high as 73 points off the intraday lows, but have since given back about 12 of those points and are perched barely above ES SMA200 at a 28-pt gain in the after-hours.If … continue reading →

That Escalated Quickly!

It was just last Tuesday we asked “where’s the bounce?”  SPX had gapped lower and failed to rebound the way it always seems to has for the past year. We had watched a trend line dating back to Dec 29 (below, in red) break down, and were wondering about the small, white channel.  From Where’s … continue reading →

The Same, but Different

Yesterday started out with a VIX-driven pop that quickly fizzled and nailed our downside target before rebounding and hitting our upside target.  Since SPX closed right at resistance, it needed a boost overnight.  So, why not go back to the same clever trick that worked the day before? Yes, VIX’s red channel has broken down … continue reading →

Striking Distance

This is day 8 of our membership promotion, running now through the end of the month for members and non-members alike. We’re offering a 25% rebate off the first month of Monthly and Quarterly auto-renew subscriptions. Annual memberships are available at a very substantial discount (rewarding those who act quickly!) Remember, the annual pricing is … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected.  All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout.  There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →

Reproach and Retreat

The first big Republican victory — the repeal and replace of the ACA — has morphed into reproach and retreat.  The net impact: what does this failure portend for the rest of the Trump agenda and, thus, the Trump Rally? Regular readers know that I’ve looked askance at this rally from the start [see: Why the “Trump … continue reading →

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

There’s an old expression that says “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  So, we spent most of the day yesterday wondering whether the day’s 2336.45 lows were close enough to our long-held downside target of 2335.34.The tag was marred by premature reversals in oil and VIX.  Did the guys working the algos not get … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 12, 2013

The eminis are flirting with danger this morning, having ducked below a key channel midline (dashed, purple) but bouncing off a smaller channel bottom and another channel midline (dashed, white) near a .786 (1674.15) for a Gartley Pattern completion. The dollar is threatening to break out of the falling wedge…. And, the SPX is set … continue reading →

The Best Laid Plans

The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST:  6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out.  EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →

The Storm Before the Calm

I’ve been quite bearish since going short on April 11 at 1597 [Big Picture: 11:30 update.]  Yesterday, though, SPX reached our initial downside target of 1540 and, as expected, paused. As we’ve discussed, this was an important points for bulls to take a stand.  It was also the ideal spot from which to launch the … continue reading →