The Market’s Latest “Lucky” Bounce

That’s a relief!  For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →

Update on COMP: Mar 20, 2018

Facebook is only 5.5% of the Nasdaq Composite (COMP), but yesterday’s plunge [see: Facebook Flops] was a good reminder to update our outlook. In our last update [see: Nov 6, 2017 Update] we identified 7619.37 as our next upside target. At this point, it’s pushing into the top quadrant of the rising white channel where … continue reading →

Why Rising Rates Are a Problem This Time

A sharp drop in interest rates has traditionally been a negative for stocks.  The chart below shows that most significant declines in 10-year yields over the years were associated with steep drops in the S&P 500.  Usually, equity losses precipitated the drops in yield.  As stock declines accelerate, money flows into bonds — raising prices … continue reading →

Pulling Out All the Stops

When unexpected unpleasantness unfurls, you can count on central banks to pull out all the stops. Such is the case with the British election results which, like Brexit, have wreaked havoc on FX markets. EURGBP, having broken down from its rising red channel dating back to mid-2015, was well on its way to a perfectly … continue reading →

Gold: Following the Yellow Brick Road

I’m not a gold bug.  I’ve always thought the price is pretty heavily manipulated (long before it hit the headlines) and I guess I’ve avoided it on principle.  Looking back at my forecasts over the past year or so, that was probably a mistake. Since our December 14, 2015 forecast, GC has gained about 19% … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected.  All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout.  There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →

One Way or Another

After allowing a six-session slump (that saw SPX nail our downside target), The Powers That Be can be forgiven for insisting on an overnight ramp job.Last night, it was USDJPY pushing through horizontal resistance, VIX getting clobbered through three separate moving averages, and oil continuing a nice bounce off our 48.63 target.  It should be enough … continue reading →

Next Steps

We’ve been watching a triangle form for over a month, wondering whether/when it would break out or break down. Yesterday, we got our answer. After coming within .40 of our 2170-2173 target on Monday, the triangle broke down — despite vigorous intraday ramping in USDJPY and CL.  Tuesday’s initial downside target at 2150 was taken … continue reading →