If at First You Don’t Succeed…

Yesterday’s setup for the e-minis looked pretty straightforward: a drop through the 200-day moving average and backtest of the 2.24 Fibonacci extension at 2729. Futures had already dropped through the 200-DMA and were heading south when the dismal retail sales data dropped. I hedged my bet, redrawing our daily downside target to include the 10-DMA … continue reading →

Goal-Line Stand

SUBSCRIBERS:  Just updated our forecast page, including RB, CL, DXY, USDJPY, EURUSD, SPX/ES, Gold, VIX, COMP, DJIA, AAPL and bonds.  Check it out HERE.  *  *  * Rumbling toward the end zone, the bears ran into the bulls’ best defender: VIX.  As ES tagged our channel-line target a day ahead of schedule (and, therefore at … continue reading →

Trick Play

With the overconfident bulls emboldened by the 200-day moving average looming just above, the bears have run a trick play and have the goal line in sight.To be sure, there are half a dozen defenders in between here and a score – starting with 380-lb All-Pro VIX.  Its 200-DMA at 16.54 is now resistance, and … continue reading →

Delay of Game

Nothing much has changed since yesterday.  SPX bounced around in our target zone, coming within a few points of its SMA200 as VIX went nowhere. The one notable exception was AAPL, which after tagging our downside target on Jan 3 $from last November [see: AAPL Discovers Gravity] reached our upside target yesterday. We originally charted … continue reading →

Update on Gold: Dec 26, 2018

Back on August 15, we noted that gold was nearing an important downside target.  From Charts I’m Watching: Aug 15, 2018: [Gold] has reached triple support –the .618, yellow TL off the 2011 highs, and the red TL from 2010.  We’ve targeted 1173.60 since the yellow TL broke down in May and gray channel broke … continue reading →


It is often said that there are two sides to every story and, somewhere in middle, lies the price of oil.  Okay, I paraphrased that just a bit. But, isn’t it odd that the day after the Saudis threaten $400/barrel oil, Donald Trump suddenly embraces the ludicrous “rogue killers” theory for the death of Washington Post … continue reading →

Investing for Dummies

I use scores of chart patterns, Fibonacci grids, technical indicators and proprietary models in my daily attempts to forecast various markets.  Some are fairly complex, multivariate models that involve a half-dozen inputs.  Others are quite simple. One of my favorite simple indicators is the well-known 10-day/20-day moving average cross. It maintains that when the SMA10 … continue reading →

Crypto Carnage

As the currency turmoil continues, it’s interesting to note that cryptocurrencies are having a worse go of it than EMs. Meanwhile, futures dipped enough overnight to finally backtest the SMA10.  They’ve since rebounded enough to backtest the broken red channel.  It remains to be seen whether SPX will join in and backtest its SMA10 and … continue reading →

Currency Complications

USDJPY reached our target at the SMA100/SMA200 overnight, at least temporarily bringing the pair back below the top of the falling white channel from which it broke out on July 10.  Readers will recall that breakout was instrumental in helping SPX break above its faux IH&S neckline 66 points ago. A USDJPY rebound here is … continue reading →