Crypto Carnage

As the currency turmoil continues, it’s interesting to note that cryptocurrencies are having a worse go of it than EMs. Meanwhile, futures dipped enough overnight to finally backtest the SMA10.  They’ve since rebounded enough to backtest the broken red channel.  It remains to be seen whether SPX will join in and backtest its SMA10 and … continue reading →

A Backtest or More?

Today should shape up as a battle between holding a much-cherished round number (SPX 2900) and backtesting solid support (the January highs.) The futures are off about 5, with yesterday’s downside target of 2878.50-2881.95 still looking good — if SPX will relinquish 2900. Much will depend on the yen, which is strengthening in the midst … continue reading →

How Not to Manipulate Stock Prices

Sometimes you just can’t catch a break.  TSLA shares rose from 22 in 2012 to 387 in 2017 — helping drive Musk’s net worth to well over $20 billion.  But, the shares have since formed a triple top, failing to top 390 and coming perilously close to breaking down. This isn’t the first time Musk … continue reading →

Currency Complications

USDJPY reached our target at the SMA100/SMA200 overnight, at least temporarily bringing the pair back below the top of the falling white channel from which it broke out on July 10.  Readers will recall that breakout was instrumental in helping SPX break above its faux IH&S neckline 66 points ago. A USDJPY rebound here is … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Aug 20, 2018

Futures are hanging on to a 4-pt gain, primarily on a continuing decline in VIX.  With Jackson Hole coming up, we could see more volatility — particularly if Fed speakers back off their hiking schedule. Speaking of backing off…TSLA is back down to its horizontal and trend line support.  As readers will recall, this is a … continue reading →

JGBs Gone Wild

Lots of excitement in the currency markets this morning — particularly the yen.  The USDJPY plunged rather decisively to our nearest downside target… …after stories appeared in the financial press that the BoJ was embarking on a buying spree, offering to buy “an unlimited amount of bonds.”  Why would they do such a thing?  Yields … continue reading →

Is Market Integrity Even a Thing Anymore?

Want to know where markets are going?  Just check Facebook.  The stock, that is. As I pointed out in March [see: Facebook Flops] the stock is a very reliable indicator of overall market direction.  And, right now, it’s threatening new all-time highs. But, its accomplishment raises an important question: does it matter how the stock … continue reading →

The Market’s Latest “Lucky” Bounce

That’s a relief!  For months, pundits have been arguing whether the Fed needed to hike interest rates three times or four times this year — you know, because of all the growth coming down the pike. Fed Über-Dove and “Man Who Thinks Market Integrity is Overrated” Jim Bullard just announced that the correct number is … continue reading →