No Surprise

“I can’t believe stocks rallied so strongly into options expiration!” said no one. Between VIX’s plunge, the euro’s ramp, and the yield curve’s decimation, bears have had no chance – even as fundamentals argued otherwise. continued for members… … continue reading →

FOMC Day: Jun 14, 2023

According to futures and talking heads, there’s a 94% chance that the Fed will pause its rate hikes this afternoon – though perhaps with a hawkish tilt. By our reckoning, equities have piled on at least 6% in the past few weeks in anticipation of this outcome.Is it justified? continued for members… … continue reading →

Jobless Claims Spike Higher

Initial claims spiked to levels not seen since October 2021, another indication of a slowing economy.  Applications rose by 28,000 to 261,000, well above the consensus of 237K. So far, futures have ignored the print. continued for members… … continue reading →

Blowout NFP Complicates Fed’s Job

Non-farm payrolls exploded higher in May, tallying 339K versus 190K consensus. On the other hand, unemployment rose from 3.4% to 3.7%. Futures initially slumped, as blowout job gains argue for further Fed tightening. But, VIX was hammered to lows of 15.12, a level not seen since Nov 2021, and the overnight ramp was salvaged, for … continue reading →

Some Like It Hot

If you’re a retailer, you might be thrilled with the personal income and personal spending beat last month (0.4% vs 0.3% exp and 0.8% versus 0.4% expected.) If you’re a manufacturer, you might be pleased with durable goods coming in at a +1.1% versus the -1.3% expected. But, if you’re a member of the FOMC, … continue reading →

Mixed Messages

Futures bounced off our 50-day MA target and are up sharply on NVDA‘s blowout earnings/forecast, egged on by Speaker McCarthy’s latest promise that a debt ceiling resolution is on the way. Of course, this bullishness is unwarranted from a Fed rate hike perspective. Initial claims came in below expectations and Q2 GDP (the deflator was … continue reading →