The Rally That VIX Built

As discussed yesterday, stocks spent the night building a cushion based on VIX (currently off 5.4%) in preparation for tomorrow’s FOMC announcement.  It started just before the close, yesterday, and has built to a 6-pt gain in the futures.Actually, it’s been less of a rally, lately, and more of an effort to maintain ES at … continue reading →

Pulling Out All the Stops

When unexpected unpleasantness unfurls, you can count on central banks to pull out all the stops. Such is the case with the British election results which, like Brexit, have wreaked havoc on FX markets. EURGBP, having broken down from its rising red channel dating back to mid-2015, was well on its way to a perfectly … continue reading →

The Same, but Different

Yesterday started out with a VIX-driven pop that quickly fizzled and nailed our downside target before rebounding and hitting our upside target.  Since SPX closed right at resistance, it needed a boost overnight.  So, why not go back to the same clever trick that worked the day before? Yes, VIX’s red channel has broken down … continue reading →

Striking Distance

This is day 8 of our membership promotion, running now through the end of the month for members and non-members alike. We’re offering a 25% rebate off the first month of Monthly and Quarterly auto-renew subscriptions. Annual memberships are available at a very substantial discount (rewarding those who act quickly!) Remember, the annual pricing is … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 12, 2017

As we noted yesterday, SPX is hanging on by the skin of its teeth to a breakout.  Despite an 18-pt intraday plunge, it recovered by the end of the session thanks to a timely decline in VIX and rally in WTI.  Will it be enough to keep the trend intact? continued for members… … continue reading →

This is a Test

Yesterday, we got a taste of what happens to United Airlines passengers who are “disruptive and belligerent.”   In what is being described as one of the biggest PR fails in recent memory, United CEO Oscar Munoz defended the action taken to forcefully drag an Asian-American doctor from a flight that United had overbooked. No … continue reading →

Fed Minutes: How Hawkish Are They?

Markets tend to moves higher on Fed minutes days, even if the news isn’t all that positive.  It’s all about convincing investors that the FOMC has their best interests at heart — that all they’re worried about is making sure that stocks continue to rally. Today’s session is slightly complicated, then, by ADP employment which came … continue reading →

Betwixt and Between

SPX and ES managed to hold key trend lines and channels yesterday, bouncing from just short of our downside targets to exactly where we expected.  All it took was an 18.3% hammering of VIX — no problem for the Masters of the Universe (real subtle, guys!) But, there was no breakout.  There wasn’t even an overnight … continue reading →

Reproach and Retreat

The first big Republican victory — the repeal and replace of the ACA — has morphed into reproach and retreat.  The net impact: what does this failure portend for the rest of the Trump agenda and, thus, the Trump Rally? Regular readers know that I’ve looked askance at this rally from the start [see: Why the “Trump … continue reading →

Horseshoes and Hand Grenades

There’s an old expression that says “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.”  So, we spent most of the day yesterday wondering whether the day’s 2336.45 lows were close enough to our long-held downside target of 2335.34.The tag was marred by premature reversals in oil and VIX.  Did the guys working the algos not get … continue reading →