It certainly looks like we’re almost there. The eminis seem to be already there… The EURUSD is clinging by its fingernails… The dollar looks ready to rumble… The USDJPY is making a bid for an IH&S, but has run smack dab into that yellow channel midline again…moment of truth for the yen… This morning’s dip … continue reading →

The Best Laid Plans

The best laid plans of mice and men Go often awry, And leave us nothing but grief and pain, For promised joy! Robert Burns, 1785 ORIGINAL POST:  6:45 AM EDT The wedges we’ve been watching on DX and EURUSD are playing out.  EURUSD has broken out… …and DX has broken down. But, it’s the USDJPY … continue reading →

Chart Patterns and You

ORIGINAL POST:  9:15 AM Last night, the dollar tagged the .786 Fib retracement of its decline from Apr 4.  It subsequently sold off almost to the .618 but, so far, is hanging in a rising wedge. The EURUSD re-tested the .500 Fib of its rise from Apr 3, and snapped back into its falling wedge … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 16, 2013

We’re set to get a nice bounce here at the bottom of the purple channel — as revised in last night’s last post. Based on where the futures are pointing, I’m not sure whether it will have legs or not.  But, I’m inclined to play along on the upside, but with relatively tight stops in … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Apr 15, 2013

The big story this morning is the meltdown taking place in the commodities complex.  Gold is especially taking it on the chin, continuing the plunge that started on Friday with the critical loss of the LT channel we discussed last week, the horizontal support at 1520-1535, and the psychologically important 1500 level. Recall gold had … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Apr 11, 2013

The chart of the day: We closed our longs (from 1539) yesterday, but are still a few points south of the market’s upside potential.  While yesterday’s 1589.07 might end up being the top, I rather suspect we’ll move just a little higher. Recall that we anticipated being in this situation a week ago [Charts I’m … continue reading →

USDJPY Update: Apr 8, 2013

The largest channels are all pretty loose fits, with plenty of incursions that make forecasting with them iffy at best. But, the smaller channels and Harmonic Patterns have been pretty effective.  Even though USDJPY has been running like a 燃える尾を持つ猫, there is growing risk of a downturn as it approaches 100. Consider the new channel … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 21, 2013

ORIGINAL POST:  9:25 AM The EURUSD is still trying to change trajectories (purple channel to red), but hasn’t been able to break out yet. The dollar is similarly facing a change in direction if the red channel can hold. Judging from the futures, SPX is set to react off the neckline and TL we’ve been … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 20, 2012

The ECB will do “whatever it takes”, which I guess now translates into strong-arming the Russians into bailing out Cyprus.  Still no break out on the EURUSD, though. It makes sense to play along with the upside, but keep stops close.  It’s questionable whether this rally will have any legs. The dollar looks like it’s finding … continue reading →