CPI: The Games Continue

Everyone who drives knows that gas prices increased more than 3% month-over-month  – the official, seasonally adjusted numbers from the BLS in this morning’s CPI report.  Data put together by non-governmental sources confirms it.But, folks like GasBuddy and AAA aren’t responsible for cost of living adjustments for millions of Americans.  So, unlike the BLS, they … continue reading →

A Break or a Breakdown?

The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets.  Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest … continue reading →

Interest Rates: Breaking Out?

With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note. The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below.  It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of … continue reading →