Oil Spikes on Iran War Worries

WTI futures spiked nearly 5% overnight in the wake of a US drone strike on Baghdad Airport which killed Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani.  It is a dangerous escalation in the US conflict with Iran which broadened when Trump alarmed US allies by pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal last May. We argued at … continue reading →

Update on Gold: Jan 2, 2020

In our Aug 28, 2019 Update on Gold I noted that although GC had just reached our 1560 target, ZN had also reached our 132’100 target.  The picture was further muddled by the fact that DXY and GC had been moving in unison – an unusual occurrence, to say the least. ZN’s resistance could put … continue reading →

Why Interest Rates Must Not Rise

In May 2014 many of us were shocked by a report that Ben Bernanke, who had recently departed the Fed, told a group of wealthy investors that he did “not expect the federal funds rate…to rise back to its long-term average of around 4%” in his lifetime. I remember feeling Bernanke’s statement represented both extraordinary … continue reading →

CPI: The Games Continue

Everyone who drives knows that gas prices increased more than 3% month-over-month  – the official, seasonally adjusted numbers from the BLS in this morning’s CPI report.  Data put together by non-governmental sources confirms it.But, folks like GasBuddy and AAA aren’t responsible for cost of living adjustments for millions of Americans.  So, unlike the BLS, they … continue reading →

A Break or a Breakdown?

The 10Y yield has clearly broken trend as expected, with a couple of Fib tests the only things standing between it and our downside targets.  Our 28.56 upside target from Jan 10 [see: China – It’s Not Me, It’s You] has officially yielded. This is what stocks were waiting for — a sign that interest … continue reading →

Interest Rates: Breaking Out?

With the usual caveat that I’m not a bond guy (seriously, what’s the point?) I took a fresh look at interest rates on the 10-year note. The obvious downtrend over the past 15 years is well-captured by the purple channel below.  It has been marked, however, by a series of rising white channels, some of … continue reading →