Next Stop 1462? April 27, 2012

Yesterday we explored the alternate path in detail, noting that one of the two RSI trend lines we’ve been watching had broken, and the second was coming into play. There is the possibility that the downward sloping red, dashed TL will catch it on the way up, but the yellow TL just broken was a … continue reading →

Spain Downgraded: April 26, 2012

S&P cuts Spain two notches, from A to BBB+, based on contracting economy…cites declining disposable income, private sector deleveraging, front-loaded fiscal consolidation and an uncertain outlook for external demand in many of Spain’s key trading partners.

This could be the catalyst for the turn we’ve been wondering about.  It could be the difference between the H&S and analog playing out versus our top alternative.  Notice that we did break the RSI trend line identified the other day (yellow, dashed) but were stopped by the 2nd one we discussed earlier today.  Today’s high was right at the shoulder line of the H&S pattern, and retraced a Fibonacci .707 of the recent 1422-1357 decline.

Keep an eye on the CDS and bond rates for Spain/Portugal/Italy and key regional banks.  Remember, all these rates are available right here, just go to the economics menu and select market data.

Analog Update: April 24, 2012

The analog we’ve been watching since April 9 is playing out nicely so far.  We got the original bounce at 1357 as forecast, followed by a rise to the middle of our 1380-1400 target range.  The H&S pattern we expected did, in fact, set up and complete yesterday. Now, we’re back testing the little channel … continue reading →