Anatomy of a Top: 2000

The 2000 top shows just how “messy” tops can be.  Here’s the finished picture in perfect hind-sight.  It’s a very crowded chart, but every single pattern had a say in how the top unfolded. SPX had zoomed from 442 to 1478 in about 5 years, a not-too-shabby 234% gain for an annually compounded 27%. Once … continue reading →

Trading with Harmonics

The first of a two-part article on harmonics trading strategies. Part 1.  January 28, 2013 Harmonics are a great source of information about the market, but they don’t tell you how or when to trade any more than do MACD crosses or breadth indicators.  So, how do you use them?  This discussion of the basic … continue reading →

AAPL: Flirting with Disaster

Not since the summer of 1666, as young Zack Newton sat pondering gravity, has so much attention been paid to a falling apple. Should we care about AAPL’s deteriorating powers of levitation?  The $200/share drop since its September highs, especially on the heels of a new dividend and share buyback program, has been unnerving.  But, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 14, 2013

ORIGINAL POST: The dollar is making a stand at the upper end of the target range I charted Friday, but hasn’t yet broken out of the steep falling channel.  While there was a turn at the .618 Fib that would justify a .786 completion (a Gartley), the more obvious Point B was at the .382. … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Jan 8, 2012

We’re getting a little more momentum going on the downside today.  SPX completed the small H&S pattern I posted yesterday.  It targets 1445 — approximately the .146 Fib of the 1266.74 – 1474.51 rally. DX completed its back test of the falling red channel and continues to show strong positive divergence.  The RSI chart shows … continue reading →

Cliffhanger: Dec 31, 2012

ORIGINAL POST:  9:25 EST We remain short from SPX 1447 on Dec 18. The dollar is either finding support at a channel midline or about to find it at the bottom of a channel, depending on which channel ultimately holds. DX RSI shows great channel support either way. The EURUSD is still hanging in there, … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Dec 27, 2012

The dollar broke down from its steepest channel (in white) as I suspected, settling into a consolidation that might flesh out the larger purple channel today or tomorrow before breaking out of the yellow channel it’s been in since Nov 12.  My target remains the .618 at 79.319 on the purple grid. I say “might” … continue reading →