Charts I’m Watching: Apr 15, 2013

The big story this morning is the meltdown taking place in the commodities complex.  Gold is especially taking it on the chin, continuing the plunge that started on Friday with the critical loss of the LT channel we discussed last week, the horizontal support at 1520-1535, and the psychologically important 1500 level. Recall gold had … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Apr 11, 2013

The chart of the day: We closed our longs (from 1539) yesterday, but are still a few points south of the market’s upside potential.  While yesterday’s 1589.07 might end up being the top, I rather suspect we’ll move just a little higher. Recall that we anticipated being in this situation a week ago [Charts I’m … continue reading →

USDJPY Update: Apr 8, 2013

The largest channels are all pretty loose fits, with plenty of incursions that make forecasting with them iffy at best. But, the smaller channels and Harmonic Patterns have been pretty effective.  Even though USDJPY has been running like a 燃える尾を持つ猫, there is growing risk of a downturn as it approaches 100. Consider the new channel … continue reading →

Update on Bonds: Mar 07, 2013

If rates really are heading back up in the near future, we’d expect to see bonds take a hit (and stocks, too, but that’s a different post.)  Back on Jan 21, we focused on the 10-year treasury (ZN.) We observed that ZN had just completed a large Crab Pattern and broken down from a rising … continue reading →

Charts I’m Watching: Mar 1, 2013

Getting a nice sell-off following the completion of the Bat Pattern we were tracking yesterday.  Shown below on the eminis… The downside path is clear.  But, bulls will probably go for the obvious IH&S with what should be a decent bounce somewhere around 1495-1500. The dollar reached our 82.136-82.281 target from several days ago, and … continue reading →

The Big Picture: Feb 27, 2013

ORIGINAL POST:  6:00 AM SPX ended yesterday just below our 1497 trigger point at the neckline.  I know the bulls would love to blow through this level and negate the H&S, but I think they’ve really got their work cut out for them, especially given the political mess in Italy and the looming US sequester. … continue reading →